Made that extra big, that's the goal.
Lakers vs Thunder
I'm sorry OKC fans but you guys will not get to pull a Golden State. This will be harder for L.A. than it should be because 1. Westbrook will kill Derek Fisher 2. Kobe and Fish sure do like shooting bad shots 3. Ron Artest cannot guard Kevin Durant (neither can Kobe so chill out). Number 1 means Westbrook should play well as long as that jumper can fall at a rate that requires it to be respected. Numbers 2 and 3 could be why the Lakers don't sweep. If they forget that Jeff Green (at barely 6'9) is guarding Pau Gasol then they deserve to lose. To win L.A. needs to remain focused long enough during each game to maintain control of each. I feel like they will slip up one game at least so prepare Lakers fans.
OKC needs Durant to go supernova in this series to win it. I'm talking upper 30 ppg to go with 6 assts and 8-9 rbs. Add in a block and a steal and he's done all he can. Thabo Sefolosha will have to continue frustrating Kobe as he tends to do. He is a great defender, he gets no love, he may end up being this seasons Dahntay Jones. Jeff Green may have to emerge as a full blown 2b option (to Durant's #1 and Westbrook's 2a option). That means a double double and somehow finding a way to slow down Pau. As one who tends to guard stronger players, the key is ball denial. Make Fisher and Kobe hesitate to dump the ball down with constant movement, remember, Pau doesn't bring the ball up and pass to himself. OKC wins if Bynum and Gasol aren't involved, but Phil Jackson won't let that happen.
Lakers in 5
Suns vs Blazers
(AP Photo/Matt York)
That looks fun I guess. That picture also perfectly summarizes how this thing turns out. The Suns are not a defensive monster, but they are solid as a team. In order to win the series they need to stop (of all people) Andre Miller. If Brandon Roy doesn't play Miller gets 90% of ball-handling and creating responsibility. Keep him out of the paint using Grant Hill and Jared Dudley (two versatile defenders). Marcus Camby can't be allowed to own the boards so Channing Frye (and maybe Robin Lopez) need to box the hell out! Amare needs to continue playing for that contract and yes, Goran Dragic needs to continue playing well (because Nash will be Nash). This one should be fun with or without Roy.
The Blazers can win this. It would be nice if LaMarcus Aldridge would become the #1 guy now, but its unlikely. What they need is a team effort on offense. The scoring will be done by Aldridge, Miller, and Fernandez. They should attack the problem of the Suns the same way San Antonio did a few years back. Allow Amare to do anything (pretty hard to stop anyway) and slow down the rest. Hopefully they won't forget the Suns were 41% from three this year (league best). Run them off the line and take your chances. Sadly, they will succumb.
Suns in 6.
Mavs vs Spurs
Ronald Martinez/Getty Images/NBAE
Well this should be good. Probably my two favorite teams in the West. Unfortunately for me, one has to go fishing after the first round. To avoid that sad fate so early in the game San Antonio needs their X-factor Tony Parker to magically get back into his old form. Manu will have a tough job scoring on two pretty good individual defenders in Shawn Marion and Caron Butler. They need to take advantage of Dallas' seeming inconsistency. Stopping Dirk is not an option, but limiting the Mavs to one shot per possession (by keeping Dampier and Haywood of the offensive boards) will help since those tend to lead to wide open perimeter shots for guys like Terry and Kidd. Tim Duncan won't need to dominate, but he better do enough to let the Mavs know he's still around.
How does Dallas win? Simple, outscore the Spurs. Seriously though, Dirk will get his, but Caron Butler needs to become Tough Juice like he was with the Wiz. 20ppg from him would be nice along with the same from Jet (Jason Terry). I don't see them suddenly becoming lock down on defense and that zone they love to run won't cut it against the great 3pt shooting the Spurs have. Stopping Tim Duncan may be doable, but the key is locking down Ginobili. Slow him down, this could be over in a hurry.
Richard Jefferson finding his way changes everything, btw. With each team relying on so many players I have no idea which of the non-superstars can step up. They will decide this thing.
Mavs in 7.
Nuggets vs Jazz
(Photo by John W. McDonough /Sports Illustrated/Getty Images)
C.J. Miles up there doing some wild stuff. So lets get to it, the hardest series to call. Denver can wins this by swarming the Jazz on D. That last night of the season exposed what some Jazz fans already knew, they can be rattled. They also desperately need Carlos Boozer to play well. Denver needs Carmelo to take advantage of the fact that no one on Utah can guard him. AK-47 is a game time decision, Miles is too small, and Kyle Korver (despite being the savior of basketball) just won't do. If they do to the Jazz what they did to L.A. last year Utah will be done quickly. Pressuring the passers will stagnate the Jazz offense and cause Deron Williams to have to create for everyone, bad news for the Jazz.
Utah can win this by limiting turnovers and racking up assists. Ball movement and man movement are key. They are one of the better passing offenses around so that should be their goal. The major question is how to stop Denver. It's going to take a special team effort to hold off the Nuggets offense. Boozer needs to give 20-10s each game (Deron too) and Okur better hit some threes to keep Denver honest. It sounds like the Jazz are an underdog here but the truth is neither is an underdog.
This one could be good. Both teams at their best will have some high scoring games and some exciting overtime battles. If Denver can't regain their lost 'swagger' (I hate typing that) the Jazz roll. If Utah continues to suck almost randomly they could get swept away. I guess I need to be the decider like George W so...
Jazz in 6.
That's it, all done.
Had to get a Pacers reference in here somewhere.
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